S. Abbott (1), J. D. Munday (1), J. Hellewell (1), R. N. Thompson (1), N. Bosse (1), CMMID COVID team (1), S. Flasche (1), A. J. Kucharski (1), R. M. Eggo (1), S. Funk (1).

Correspondence to:

1. Center for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom

Last Updated: 2020-03-17

Note: this is preliminary analysis, has not yet been peer-reviewed and is updated daily as new data becomes available. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. A summary of this report can be downloaded here

Summary

Aim: To identify changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting.

Latest estimates as of the 2020-03-17

Region map


Figure 1: Regional map of the expected change in daily cases based on data from the 2020-03-17.

Summary of latest reproduction number and case count estimates


Figure 2: Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (bar = 95% credible interval) based on data from the 2020-03-17. Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required fror elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the 5 regions with the most cases currently and nationally


Figure 3: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) based on data from the 2020-03-17 in the regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Latest estimates summary table

Country/Region Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Lombardia 735 – 2818 Increasing 1.1 – 1.7 6.2 – Cases decreasing
Emilia Romagna 184 – 758 Increasing 1.2 – 2 3.9 – 18
Piemonte 156 – 714 Increasing 1.5 – 3.1 2.1 – 11
Veneto 103 – 440 Increasing 1.1 – 1.9 7.4 – Cases decreasing
Toscana 60 – 362 Increasing 1.3 – 2.5 3.2 – Cases decreasing
Marche 51 – 265 Increasing 1.1 – 2 4 – Cases decreasing
Liguria 40 – 234 Increasing 1.2 – 2.4 3.9 – Cases decreasing
Puglia 36 – 220 Increasing 1.6 – 3.4 1.9 – Cases decreasing
Lazio 30 – 169 Increasing 1.2 – 2.6 3.2 – Cases decreasing
Campania 21 – 120 Increasing 1.3 – 2.4 3.2 – Cases decreasing
Abruzzo 18 – 113 Increasing 1.4 – 3.2 1.3 – Cases decreasing
P.A. Bolzano 13 – 113 Increasing 1.1 – 2.6 2.3 – Cases decreasing
Umbria 8 – 76 Increasing 1.2 – 2.9 2.6 – Cases decreasing
Valle d’Aosta 7 – 73 Increasing 1.7 – 4.9 1.4 – 9.7
Calabria 6 – 60 Increasing 1.3 – 3.6 0.93 – Cases decreasing
Sicilia 5 – 58 Increasing 1 – 2.1 3.5 – Cases decreasing
Friuli Venezia Giulia 1 – 26 Likely increasing 0.8 – 1.6 92 – Cases decreasing
Sardegna 1 – 26 Increasing 1.2 – 3 1.7 – Cases decreasing
Basilicata 1 – 24 Increasing 1.2 – 4.8 0.13 – Cases decreasing
P.A. Trento 1 – 23 Increasing 1 – 2.1 2.3 – Cases decreasing
Molise 1 – 18 Increasing 0.9 – 4.2 0.13 – Cases decreasing


Table 1: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time for the 2020-03-17 in each region included in the analysis. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Methods

Summary

Limitations

Detail

Data

We used a European line-list that contained the date of symptom onset, date of confirmation and import status (imported or local) for each case [2,7] where available. Daily case counts by date of report and region were extracted from daily datasets made publically available by the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile [1,2].

Statistical analysis

We used the same approach as in our previous global study of the temporal variation in transmission during the COVID-19 outbreak [6]. However, due to a limited line-list of Italian cases we used a combined linelist of cases from Germany, France, Italy, Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Spain to estimate the report delay. We could also not account for imported cases (either international or between region) due to a shortage of data. Code and results from this analysis can be found here and here.

Regional reports

Lombardia

Summary


Figure 4: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 735 – 2818
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 – 1.7
Rate of spread -0.12 – 0.11
Doubling time (days) 6.2 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.23 – 0.84


Table 3: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 5: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Emilia Romagna

Summary


Figure 7: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 184 – 758
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 2
Rate of spread 0.039 – 0.18
Doubling time (days) 3.9 – 18
Adjusted R-squared 0.21 – 0.99


Table 4: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 8: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Piemonte

Summary


Figure 10: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 156 – 714
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.5 – 3.1
Rate of spread 0.064 – 0.32
Doubling time (days) 2.1 – 11
Adjusted R-squared 0.27 – 0.96


Table 5: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 11: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Veneto

Summary


Figure 13: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 103 – 440
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 – 1.9
Rate of spread -0.17 – 0.094
Doubling time (days) 7.4 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.24 – 0.8


Table 6: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 14: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Toscana

Summary


Figure 16: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 60 – 362
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 2.5
Rate of spread -0.051 – 0.22
Doubling time (days) 3.2 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.17 – 0.96


Table 7: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 17: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Marche

Summary


Figure 19: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 51 – 265
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 – 2
Rate of spread -0.11 – 0.17
Doubling time (days) 4 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.19 – 0.98


Table 8: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 20: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Liguria

Summary


Figure 22: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 40 – 234
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 2.4
Rate of spread -0.1 – 0.18
Doubling time (days) 3.9 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.2 – 0.95


Table 9: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 23: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Puglia

Summary


Figure 25: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 36 – 220
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.6 – 3.4
Rate of spread -0.091 – 0.37
Doubling time (days) 1.9 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.17 – 0.94


Table 10: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 26: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Lazio

Summary


Figure 28: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 30 – 169
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 2.6
Rate of spread -0.21 – 0.22
Doubling time (days) 3.2 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.33 – 0.95


Table 11: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 29: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Campania

Summary


Figure 31: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 21 – 120
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 2.4
Rate of spread -0.11 – 0.22
Doubling time (days) 3.2 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.24 – 0.96


Table 12: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 32: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Abruzzo

Summary


Figure 34: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 18 – 113
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.4 – 3.2
Rate of spread -0.27 – 0.51
Doubling time (days) 1.3 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.74 – 0.99


Table 13: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 35: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

P.a. Bolzano

Summary


Figure 37: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 13 – 113
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 – 2.6
Rate of spread -0.074 – 0.3
Doubling time (days) 2.3 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.18 – 0.91


Table 14: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 38: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Umbria

Summary


Figure 40: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 8 – 76
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 2.9
Rate of spread -0.13 – 0.27
Doubling time (days) 2.6 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.24 – 0.94


Table 15: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 41: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Valle D’aosta

Summary


Figure 43: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 7 – 73
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.7 – 4.9
Rate of spread 0.071 – 0.49
Doubling time (days) 1.4 – 9.7
Adjusted R-squared 0.14 – 0.95


Table 16: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 44: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Calabria

Summary


Figure 46: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 6 – 60
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 3.6
Rate of spread -0.43 – 0.75
Doubling time (days) 0.93 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.71 – 0.99


Table 17: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 47: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Sicilia

Summary


Figure 49: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 5 – 58
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1 – 2.1
Rate of spread -0.23 – 0.2
Doubling time (days) 3.5 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.25 – 0.82


Table 18: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 50: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Friuli Venezia Giulia

Summary


Figure 52: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 1 – 26
Expected change in daily cases Likely increasing
Effective reproduction no. 0.8 – 1.6
Rate of spread -1 – 0.0075
Doubling time (days) 92 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.082 – 0.93


Table 19: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 53: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Sardegna

Summary


Figure 55: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 1 – 26
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 3
Rate of spread -0.31 – 0.4
Doubling time (days) 1.7 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.25 – 0.75


Table 20: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 56: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Basilicata

Summary


Figure 58: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 1 – 24
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 4.8
Rate of spread -3.4 – 5.3
Doubling time (days) 0.13 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.19 – 0.58


Table 21: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 59: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

P.a. Trento

Summary


Figure 61: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 1 – 23
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1 – 2.1
Rate of spread -3.3 – 0.3
Doubling time (days) 2.3 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.16 – 0.88


Table 22: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 62: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Molise

Summary


Figure 64: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 1 – 18
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 0.9 – 4.2
Rate of spread -4.3 – 5.4
Doubling time (days) 0.13 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.17 – 0.52


Table 23: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-17. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 65: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-17. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Implementation details

Updates

References

1 Dipartimento della Protezione Civile. Dati COVID-19 Italia. https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19

2 Abbott S, Hellewell J, Munday JD et al. NCoVUtils: Utility functions for the 2019-ncov outbreak. - 2020;-:–. doi:10.5281/zenodo.3635417

3 Cori A. EpiEstim: Estimate time varying reproduction numbers from epidemic curves. 2019. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=EpiEstim

4 Thompson R, Stockwin J, Gaalen R van et al. Improved inference of time-varying reproduction numbers during infectious disease outbreaks. Epidemics 2019;29:100356. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100356

5 Nishiura H, Linton NM, Akhmetzhanov AR. Serial interval of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections. medRxiv Published Online First: 2020. doi:10.1101/2020.02.03.20019497

6 S. Abbott, J. Hellewell, J. D. Munday, J. Y. Chun, R. N. Thompson, N. Bosse, Y. D. Chan, T. W. Russell, C. I. Jarvis, CMMID COVID team, S. Flasche, A. J. Kucharski, R. M. Eggo, S. Funk. Temporal variation in transmission during the COVID-19 outbreak. https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-transmission/global-time-varying-transmission.html

7 Xu B, Gutierrez B, Hill S et al. Epidemiological Data from the nCoV-2019 Outbreak: Early Descriptions from Publicly Available Data. 2020.